Every share is a count.
Each course of action runs through the same 2,000 simulated futures. The platform counts the ones in which a critical item runs short. The share it reports is that count.
As planned
742 futures with a critical shortfall
With added lift
298 futures with a critical shortfall
One mark is one future. One column holds 20.
One mark is one future. One column holds 40.
A rail line closes for ten days. As planned, rations, diesel or ammunition run short in 742 futures. With one more freight train, in 298. Both rows are the same futures.
Demonstration scenario. Fictional data.
A shortfall has a size.
As planned742 futures
With added lift298 futures
The share says how often. The spread says how much. Each mark is one future with a critical shortfall, set over its item-days. One item-day is one critical item short at one site for one day. As planned, 271 futures are short by a single item-day and the largest shortfall is 25. With added lift the largest is 18.
The scenario on the planner's map, day by day.
The planner moves through the thirty days, then changes the course of action. Every site shows how it stands on that day.
An unclear question gets a question back.
The planner assistant answers from the scenario and its runs. When a question does not say what it is about, the assistant asks, and offers what the scenario holds. Its own words, unedited.
Planner
How should we tow the broken-down trailer to the Kaunas workshop?
Assistant
Which item or class of supply do you mean? This scenario has, for example: Combat ration, 24-hour pack (generic), Diesel fuel F-54 (generic), Jet fuel F-34 (generic), Ammunition, mixed pallet (generic).
How a number is made.
The scenario. Sites, routes, units and stocks, with the disruption written in.
Seeded futures. The simulation draws 2,000 futures from one seed and runs each of them day by day over 30 days. The same seed gives the same futures again.
The same futures for every course of action. Each option meets the identical futures, so a difference between two options comes from the options and not from chance.
A count. A share is the number of futures with a critical shortfall, divided by the number of futures. No curve is fitted.
Graded afterwards. The forecasts of the digital twins are graded against what happened.
A person decides. The platform recommends. Two people approve.
The run on this page
- Futures per course of action
- 2,000
- Seed
- 20261026
- Horizon
- 30 days
- Disruption
- Rail line Ełk to Kaunas, closed for ten days
- Courses of action
- As planned. With added lift: one more freight train.
- Critical items
- Rations, diesel, ammunition
- Simulation engine
- Version 1.14.0